That’s the typical question that people throw out there in the gacha game forum. Some people tried to categorized using their logic but without any data to back them up. So, I thought that I should investigate a bit on this topic. What is a whale? How do you define a whale in a gacha game? Are those who spend more than $100 considered a whale?
Let’s see this from the marketing point of view. In marketing, there’s a 80/20 rule, also known as Pareto principle. Basically, based on this principle, 80% of revenue comes from 20% of customers. So, if anybody falls into those 20% customer category, in my opinion, that customer is considered a whale. They are the one that the company cares the most. Of course, in the 20% customer category, there are many types and sizes of whale. There’s going to be some that spends more and some that spends less.
If all customer paying data is available, we’ll know for sure who is a whale and who’s not. Just sort the customer based on their total spending. Top customers that made up the 80% revenue are some kind of whale.
Unfortunately, customers data are not available. So, I’m going to use any data that’s available. The result will be just an estimate. It’s good enough as a gauge. I’m going to look into the gacha game I am familiar with, the one I played regularly, that is Fire Emblem Heroes. The game itself is free to download, free to play, but players can spend money to obtain in game currency (orb) that they can use to obtain (summon) certain heroes. Even though the game regularly gives about 300 orbs per month, the amount is just enough to push player into the direction to purchase the orb.
Based on the latest news from Nintendo, as of September 2019, Fire Emblem Heroes has been downloaded about 15 million times and made more than $618 million. That’s a lot of money for a free game.
Based on the latest survey on Reddit (August 2019), approximately 34.6% of those who responded to the survey are F2P, meaning they do not spend any money on the game. Since not all data are available to the public, I’m going to make some assumptions so we can estimate the number in order to answer “Am I a whale?” question.
So, here’s what I know:
– Total revenue: $618 million
– Total download: 15 million
– F2P customer: 34.6% vs paid customer: 63.4% (based on reddit survey)
– Monthly active players: ~750K (based on player ranking)
Let’s calculate:
80% of $618 million is $494.4 million.
20% of 15 million downloads is 3 million
If we take an average, it’s $164.80 per download
Since that’s the average, that means some customers are actually spend less than that and some spends more. That’s just the ballpark estimate. The calculation doesn’t take into account the re-roll downloads. I know that many players re-roll their account when starting the game. When players re-roll, they are redownloading the game. That count is included in the 15 millions download. So, for simplicity, if you spend about $164.8 or more since Fire Emblem Heroes was released, you are already considered a whale.
Survey on reddit reported that:
– 8.2% spends more than $1,000
– 6.6% spends between $500 – $999
– 19.4% spends between $100 – $499
– 28.6% spends less than $100
Okay. The number above are the overall since the beginning. Now, let’s see for a month.
Based on Panime HQ, Fire Emblem Heroes made about $3.16 million in August 2019. Monthly active player is estimated at 750K.
80% of $3.16 million is $2.52 million
20% of 750K players is 150K players
On average, it’s $16.83
If you spend about $16.83 or more in the month of August 2019, then you’re considered a whale for that month (may be a tiny whale). Again, the 750K estimate includes duplicated accounts. Some players play on multiple devices.
Since we’re viewing whale from marketing point of view, the number is going to be different for every game. The calculation above is only for Fire Emblem Heroes.
So, are you a whale?
As for me, I’m still a F2P.