Fire Emblem Heroes game is still the most profitable mobile game for Nintendo so far, but the revenue is declining at a fast pace. Intelligent Systems is experimenting with the business model to help with the revenue. They were experimenting with the FEH pass subscriptions last month and they are trying to sell a “forma” unit at about $30 this month. I think they are trying really hard to increase their revenue by adding other stuff on top of their very profitable gacha game. In my opinion, if they are going to add a subscription and buying mechanism, they should get rid of their gacha mechanics. They have to choose either gacha or outright purchase. Don’t try to mix the 2. By mixing the gacha and purchase, it shows how greedy the company is.
Now, let’s talk about the state of the game. Many people who play the Fire Emblem game have a secondary account on another device. I also have a secondary account that I occasionally use to collect daily orb and/or summon to alleviate the temptation to summon on my main account. With the secondary account, I sometimes use it to gauge how many people are actually playing the game. Apparently, they are much smaller than what I originally thought. Here are some game modes that have total players (the number includes those people with multiple accounts)
- Aether Raids – about 210K
- Arena Assault – about 103K
- Mjolnir Strike – about 150K
- Tempest Trials – about 330K
Based on the latest survey on reddit:
- 9.4% have spent more than $1,000
- 6.8% spent between $500 – $999
- 19.6% spent between $100 – $499
- 28.1% spent less than $100
- So, about 67% of respondent are paying customers
- about 33% of respondent are F2P players
- 24% have bought FEH pass
- about 1.4K people responded to the survey
Based on Japanese game-i company that tracks/estimates game revenue, FEH pass did not affect the revenue significantly. Fire Emblem Heroes revenue is still declining. It’s still too early to make judgement though. So far, this year estimated revenue is about 70% of last year estimated revenue for the first 2 months of the year.
Based on my estimate, this game is still profitable even with lower revenue. Considering the size of the company (about 150 employees), plus the games it makes and the amount of content that it adds per month, FEH is still providing enough revenue and profit for the company to survive many more years to come. So, I think there’s no need to worry if the game is going to be shutdown anytime soon. The game will still be around at least a few more years, or until the company decides that it’s no longer worth it for them to maintain.
Let’s talk about the latest addition to the game.
Compile Manual
This is a new feature where we can use the divine code we get from playing Mjolnir strike and other game modes to purchase a hero manual. There are 2 types of manual: normal and limited.
Normal
Normal heroes manuals are listed as a path. There are currently 6 paths with 5 heroes per path. Getting the normal hero manual follows a certain path. So, if you want to get the 4th hero in path 1, you’ll need to purchase hero manual 1, 2, 3 on path 1 before you can purchase the 4th hero in path 1. You can switch which path to follow, but requirement is still the same. You still have to purchase the lower end heroes before obtaining the better hero. The cost to complete a path is 6,000 divine codes. Currently, nobody can purchase the whole path yet. So, we can’t know for certain if the path is repeatable or not (meaning, is it possible to purchase the same path after completion more than once). I’m not going to put too much hope. There are close to 500 heroes in catalog today and IS keeps on adding new heroes every months. Other modes that similar with this kind of path is one and done. So. I think the normal hero manual path is one and done. With 6,000 divine codes cost and the current pace of divine codes we collect, it’s going to take at least 6 months (for top players) to complete a path. I think for casual players, it’ll take closer to a year to complete a path. So, unless something change drastically, nobody will be able to complete the 6 path currently available in the next few years, making this addition worthless.
Limited
Limited-time manuals are not listed as a path. You can obtain the hero manuals without following a certain order. There are currently 7 hero manuals to choose from. We need a different kind of divine codes than the normal divine codes. They are not interchangeable. We obtain a limited divine codes from other events. So for, IS is giving this limited divine codes from login bonus, forging bonds and hall of forms. We currently don’t know how many limited divine codes we can get. But the total limited divine codes we need in order to purchase the 7 hero manuals is 1,100.
Hall of Forms
It’s the same Hall of Forms as before. It’s an interesting experiment game mode. However, after we completed the mode, we have the options to outright purchase one of the hero we want at $30. However, we won’t be able to merge or inherit the skill. We can use this hero as the base for merge or to inherit other skills.
Summoning pool
5* heroes in the pool is so bloated. IS hasn’t made any improvement to summoning pool. They keep on adding new 5* to the pool which lowers the percentages of getting a particular 5* hero. This translates to increased orbs cost per 5* hero every time IS introduces new 5* hero.
Power Creep
It is so rampant and very often. It makes it harder to justify maxing out any hero other than the newest heroes. Generation 1 infantry units are typically in the 160 BST range. Generation 4 infantry units are in the 170-175 BST range now. IS introduced the Duel infantry skill to increase the BST to 170, only to be powercrept by their Legendary counterpart at 175 BST. Then Legendary Chrom happened that powercrept every duel skill to 180 BST. So, all legendary with built-in duel skill is limited to 175 BST, except Chrom with 180 BST. Other legendary unit without built-in duel skill (such as L!Azura, L!Ike, etc) is limited to 170 BST.
Conclusion
I think the current state of Fire Emblem Heroes game is not good. It’s trending downwards. I think the company is making too many questionable decisions that’ll hurt more than help the game.
In the past, I’d recommend this game to anybody in a heart beat, but nowadays, I have to think twice before finally decided to not recommending the game anymore.
If you are already playing the game and still enjoy the game and have self control to not gamble, then stick with it. I think the game will still be around in the next few years.
If you are considering to play this game as new players, here are a few questions you should consider before jumping in:
- Have you play other gacha games before? Do you fall into gambling addiction easily?
- Are you a casual gamer? Are you competitive?
- What’s your objective in playing a game? Collect heroes, complete the game, top rank?
- Do you care about powercreep that’ll happen every few months?
- If you are willing to spend money for a phone game, how much are you willing to spend for this game?
If you’re prone to gambling addiction, competitive, want to collect heroes or want to earn top rank, be ready to spend lots of money.
Here are some numbers to consider:
- On average, 150 orbs to get a specific 5* hero
- On average, 85 orbs to get non-specific 5* hero on regular banner
- On average, 45 orbs to get non-specific 5* focus hero on legendary banner
- On average, 1500 orbs to max out a certain 5* hero (more orbs on legendary banner)
- 143 orbs for $75
- With gacha, number of orbs required is varied, depending on luck
- Close to 40% of respondent spent more than $100 in this game
This game is not too hard and it’s possible to complete the game with the currency you earn in-game. Also, it’s possible to earn top rank without money. However, it’s hard to do, require self-control and can take a considerable amount of time to achieve that. On average, we’re getting about 250-300 orbs monthly if you are near top rank and complete every single game mode or quests. In theory, if you save those orbs for about 5-6 months, you can max out 1 5* exclusive hero. You’ll need 4 5* max out hero to earn top rank.
In closing, consider other things than this game to entertain yourself.